Portugal: Leading indicators improve in April
April 29, 2013
In April, the consumer confidence index rose to minus 54.3 points, up from the minus 55.5 points recorded in March. At the current level, consumer sentiment is 1.2 points below the level observed in the same month last year. Consumers were notably more optimistic on the households' financial situation in the next 12 months as well as regarding saving expectations over the next 12 months. In addition, fewer respondents expected a higher unemployment rate. On the downside, households' assessment on the national outlook for the next 12 months deteriorated in April. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect private consumption to contract 3.5% in 2013, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel anticipates private consumption to contract 0.6%.
Simultaneously, the economic climate indicator rose from minus 3.9 points in March to minus 3.6 points in April, thereby reaching its highest level in eight months. That said, despite the small rise, economic sentiment remains depressed, which does not bode well for economic activity in the near term. Accordingly, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect fixed investment to contract 7.3% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees investment falling 2.0%.