Portugal: Leading indicators continue to improve in August
August 29, 2013
The consumer confidence index rose from minus 50.9 points in July to minus 44.1 points in August, reaching the highest level since September 2010. According to the statistical institute, the increase in consumer confidence was broad-based, as all areas improved over the previous month. In particular, consumers were more optimistic about prospects for employment and the country's economic situation. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect private consumption to contract 3.5% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel anticipates private consumption to contract 0.8%.
Simultaneously, the economic climate indicator rose from minus 2.6 points in July to minus 2.1 points in August, hitting its highest level since June 2011. Despite the increase, economic sentiment remains depressed, which does not bode well for economic activity in the near term. Accordingly, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect fixed investment to contract 8.9% in 2013, which is down 1.2 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees investment falling 0.6%.