Poland PMI September 2020

Poland

Poland: PMI inches up marginally in September

October 1, 2020

The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up to 50.8 in September from 50.6 in August. Consequently, the index remained above the 50-threshold, which indicates an improvement in business conditions in the Polish manufacturing sector compared to the previous month, albeit also suggesting the recovery remains subdued.

September’s reading came on the back of a marginal rise in manufacturing output as the sector continued to reopen after the first coronavirus wave’s lockdowns. New orders increased in the month as both demand and exports firmed. As such, employment increased for the first time since June 2019, with job creation rising at the fastest rate in nearly two years. On the price front, although input cost inflation eased from the previous month, price pressures remained strong due to currency weakness. Meanwhile, output charges increased for the first time in six months, but only marginally, however. Lastly, business sentiment improved markedly in the month, with the outlook for production in the coming twelve months logging its strongest reading since May 2019.

Commenting on September’s PMI result and the outlook for business conditions in the Polish manufacturing sector, analysts at ING, reflected:

“Companies seem to be unconcerned over the mounting Covid-19 wave in Europe. On the other hand, the current production assessment deteriorated slightly but still indicates improving activity. Nonetheless, this is another metric suggesting Polish businesses have a V-shaped mindset. We consider the PMI survey a relatively poor proxy for Polish manufacturing though, especially during the pandemic. Local industry is far more diversified compared to other CEE countries, with lower reliance on automakers and a larger share of smaller companies. Still, rising orders are particularly welcome, suggesting Poland should retain a high current account surplus (c.3% of GDP this year) in the coming months.”

FocusEconomics panelists expect fixed investment to fall 8.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects growth in industrial output of 5.4%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author:, Economist

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Note: Markit Poland Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease.
Source: IHS Markit.


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