Poland Monetary Policy

Poland

Poland: NBP keeps reference rate again at record low of 1.50%

September 2, 2015

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to keep its reference rate at the record low of 1.50% at its 1–2 September monetary policy meeting. The decision matched market expectations and marked the fourth consecutive time the NBP has left the rate unchanged.

In its accompanying statement, the NBP reaffirmed that the global economy is growing moderately. According to the Bank, the Euro area keeps recovering slowly, although a slight weakening was observed in Q2. However, the U.S. economy picked up in the same period. In contrast, China’s Q2 growth rate was relatively low and recent economic data indicate further deterioration. Recessions in Russia and Brazil have deepened, increasing concerns of weaknesses in developing countries that led to deterioration in the financial market sentiment.

On the domestic front, the NBP noted that GDP growth in Q2 was slightly below Q1’s expansion. The Bank commented that, “economic growth continued to be driven primarily by consumption, supported by favourable labour market situation and growing household lending. GDP growth was also driven by further growth in investment – although weaker than in 2015 Q1 – fueled by good financial condition of enterprises. In turn, contribution of net exports to GDP growth declined markedly. July data on production and retail sales point to a stabilisation of economic growth in the following quarters.”

Regarding inflation, the Bank stated that there is no inflationary pressure in the economy due to moderate growth in demand and a continuing negative output gap. In addition, low commodity prices and moderate nominal wage growth are contributing to the lack of cost pressure. These factors caused annual growth in consumer prices to remain negative, although the pace of the price decrease has moderated.

Finally, the Bank commented that, “price growth will continue to slowly increase in the nearest quarters. Its growth will be supported by the expected stable economic growth, amidst the recovery in the euro area and a favourable situation in the domestic labour market. At the same time, increasing risk of stronger economic slowdown in emerging economies and the declining commodity prices have raised the uncertainty about the pace of inflation returning to the target.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the policy rate to end 2015 at 1.51%. For 2016, the panel sees the rate ending the year at 1.99%.


Author:, Economist

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Poland Monetary Policy September 2015

Note: NBP Reference Rate in %.
Source: National Bank of Poland (NBP).


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