Poland: Central Bank stands pat at March meeting
March 6, 2019
As widely expected by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50% at its 5–6 March monetary policy meeting. In addition, policymakers held the Lombard rate unchanged at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 0.50% and the rediscount rate at 1.75%. It has now been more than three years since the NBP last moved the reference rate.
The Bank took the decision against a backdrop of low inflation, softer economic activity and loose monetary conditions in the Eurozone. Moderating price pressures were reflected by January’s data on both headline and core inflation, while Q4’s slowdown in economic growth also supported the decision to hold rates. Going ahead, the Bank expects GDP growth to slow further and it sees inflation rising only mildly in the coming months, restrained by a freeze on electricity prices and contained oil prices. The NBP will thus likely hold fire for much of the year, with FocusEconomics expecting no rate hikes before 2020.
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 2–3 April.
Poland Interest Rate Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast analysts expect the reference rate to end 2019 at 1.55%. For 2020, the panel sees the rate ending the year at 1.92%.