Poland: Inflation edges down in October
December 13, 2013
In November, consumer prices fell 0.2% over the previous month, which followed the 0.2% increase observed in October. The result contrasted market expectations of a 0.1% rise. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the decrease was mainly driven by a reduction in prices for transport as well as for communication. Annual headline inflation edged down from 0.8% in October to 0.6% in November, which was below market expectations of a 0.9% increase. Inflation is still below the Central Bank's target of 2.5% with a tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.4% over the previous month in October (the latest month for which data are available). Annual core inflation inched up from 1.3% in September to 1.4% in October. The Central Bank expects inflation to end 2013 at 0.8% and 2014 at 1.2%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end this year at 1.1%, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2014, the panel expects inflation to accelerate to 2.1%, which is also unchanged from last month's forecast.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist