Poland: Inflation declines to 10-month low in April
May 15, 2014
In April, consumer prices were flat over the previous month, which was below the 0.1% increase observed in the previous four months and undershot market expectations of a 0.3% rise. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the result reflects that higher prices for clothing and footwear were offset by lower prices for communication as well as for food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Annual headline inflation fell from 0.7% in March to 0.3% in April, which was below market expectations of a 0.7% increase and marked the lowest rate since June 2013. Inflation is well below the Central Bank's target of 2.5% with a tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.3% over the previous month in February (the latest month for which data are available). Annual core inflation rose from 0.9% in February to 1.1% in March.
The Central Bank expects inflation to end 2014 at 1.7% and to increase to 1.9% by the end of 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2014 at 2.1%, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2015, the panel expects inflation to accelerate to 2.4%.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist