Poland Inflation May 2016


Poland: Fall in annual consumer prices moderates slightly in May

June 13, 2016

Consumer prices in May increased 0.1% over the previous month, which was below the 0.3% increase recorded in April and expected by market analysts. The increase was in line with preliminary estimates published in late May. The moderate rise was mainly driven by increasing prices in the transport and health categories, which were partially offset by decreases in clothing and recreation prices.

In annual terms, consumer prices dropped 0.9% in May, which followed the 1.1% fall recorded in April. Inflation thus remains well below the Central Bank’s target of 2.5% with a tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage point. Meanwhile, the average annual variation in consumer prices stabilized at April’s -0.8%.

Core consumer prices were flat on a monthly basis in May (April: +0.3% month-on-month). Core consumer prices fell 0.4% year-on-year, which was in line with April’s result. The annual average variation in core consumer prices in May came in at April’s 0.1%, thereby remaining at the lowest level in almost 10 years.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer prices to fall 0.3% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2017, the panel expects inflation to average 1.5%.

Author:, Economist

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Poland Inflation Chart

Poland Inflation May 2016 1

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS).

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