Poland GDP Q4 2016


Poland: Plunging investment causes growth to slow to three-year low in 2016

February 1, 2017

According to preliminary estimates released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), GDP grew 2.8% in the full year 2016. The result was below 2015’s robust 3.9% expansion but slightly overshot market expectations of a softer 2.6% increase. The reading marked the weakest growth in three years.

Reduced EU development funds drove a plunge in fixed investment, which contracted 5.5% (2015: +6.1%) and limited GDP growth. In contrast, private consumption was robust, growing 3.6%, above 2015’s 3.2% rise. An improving labor market, low inflation and government handouts to families have acted as tailwinds to household spending. Overall, domestic demand rose 2.8% in 2016, marking a deceleration compared to the 3.4% increase recorded in 2015.

A flash estimate of Q4 2016 GDP data will be released on 14 February and detailed data for 2016 GDP will be published on 15 May.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.1% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists foresee the economy growing 3.2%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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