Poland: GDP growth cools in Q3

According to a flash release, GDP growth decelerated to 3.5% year on year (yoy) in the third quarter, from 5.8% in Q2. Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rebounded and grew 0.9% in Q3, swinging from the previous quarter's 2.3% contraction.

Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, monthly data suggests that the industrial sector supported the economy amid an improvement in supply constraints.

Commenting on the outlook, economists at ING stated:

“The prospects for the future look grim due to deteriorating foreign markets (a possible recession in Germany) and tighter financial conditions both in Poland and abroad (rising interest rates). In addition, high inflation bites into households' real disposable income as wage growth fails to keep pace with price increases.”

FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to expand 1.2% in 2023, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2024, our panelists see growth at 3.3%.