Poland GDP

Poland

Poland: Economy grows at fastest pace in two years in Q1

May 30, 2014

In the first quarter, GDP increased 3.4% over the same quarter last year, which marked the largest expansion since Q1 2012. The result, which came in above the 2.7% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter, was roughly in line with the 3.3% reported in the preliminary estimate. The acceleration was driven by a surge in fixed investment and strong exports. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally-adjusted 1.1% (Q4: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter).

On the domestic side, fixed investment accelerated to a 10.7% increase (Q4: +2.0% year-on-year). Private consumption growth was up 2.6% in Q1 (Q4: +2.1% yoy) and government consumption increased just 0.7% (Q4: +3.1% yoy).

On the external side, exports expanded 7.6% in the first quarter (Q4: +6.4% yoy). Meanwhile, imports increased 6.9% (Q4: +4.2% yoy). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 1.0 percentage points in Q4 to 0.5 percentage points in Q1.

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 2.9% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.2% in 2014, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6%


Author:, Economist

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Poland GDP Q1 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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