Poland: Economic growth slows at the beginning of 2012
May 31, 2012
In the first quarter, GDP increased 3.5% over the same quarter last year, which was below the 4.3% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter but came in just in line with last monthmonth's Consensus Forecast. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8% (Q4 2011: +1.0% quarter-on-quarter).
The deceleration in the first quarter mainly reflected a slowdown in gross fixed investment as well as a moderation in external demand. Inventories, on the other hand, contributed positively to GDP growth in the first quarter.
Domestic demand increased 2.7% in the first quarter, which was below the 3.2% increase recorded in the fourth quarter. Private consumption growth remained steady at 2.1% in the first quarter, while gross fixed investment decelerated from a 9.7% increase in Q4 2011 to a 6.7% rise in Q1. Government consumption was the only expenditure component that contracted in the first quarter of 2012 (Q4 2011: -0.3% year-on-year; Q1 2012: -1.3% yoy).
Exports expanded 4.8% in the first quarter (Q4 2011: +7.9% yoy), while imports increased 3.2% (Q4 2011: +5.0% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 1.0 percentage points in the fourth quarter to 0.7 percentage points in the first.