Poland: Economic growth remains strong in third quarter
November 30, 2011
In the third quarter, GDP increased 4.2% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was marginally below the 4.3% expansion in the second quarter, but overshot market expectations of a 4.0% rise. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally adjusted 1.0% (Q2: +1.2% quarter-on-quarter). Growth in the third quarter was still mostly led by resilient domestic demand, despite a moderation in the contribution of the domestic sector to overall economic growth, which was compensated by a boost from net exports. Domestic demand increased 3.2% in the third quarter, which was below the 4.3% increase recorded in the second quarter. Private consumption slowed from 3.6% in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third quarter. Gross fixed investment accelerated from a 6.9% increase in the second quarter to a 8.5% rise in the third quarter. Government consumption was the only expenditure component that contracted in the third quarter (Q3: -3.1% year-on-year; Q2: -0.6% yoy). The net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth improved compared to the second quarter. Exports expanded 7.7% in the third quarter (Q2: +4.4% yoy) while imports increased 5.2% (Q2: +4.5% yoy). As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth rose from minus 0.1 percentage points in the second quarter to plus 1.0 percentage points in the third. The Central Bank sees the economy growing 4.1% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012.