Poland GDP


Poland: Economic growth moderates slightly in Q3

November 28, 2014

In the third quarter, GDP increased 3.3% over the same quarter last year. The result came in just below the 3.5% expansion recorded in the second quarter, but largely exceeded the 2.7% markets had expected. The expansion in Q3 was driven by domestic demand, whereas the external sector performed poorly. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% in Q3 (Q2: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter).

On the domestic side, private consumption expanded 3.2% (Q2: +3.0% year-on-year) and government consumption increased 3.5% (Q2: +3.7% yoy). The main driver of growth was fixed investment, which accelerated from 8.7% in Q2 to 9.9% in Q3.

On the external side, exports of goods and services expanded 3.8% in the third quarter (Q2: +4.8% yoy), while imports increased 7.3% (Q2: +9.4% yoy). As a result, net exports dragged down growth by 1.6 percentage points (Q2: -1.9 percentage points).

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand between 2.9% and 3.5% in 2014 and between 2.0% and 3.7% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.1% in 2014, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists expect the economy to grow 3.2, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Author:, Economist

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Poland GDP Chart

Poland GDP Q3 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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