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Poland: Economic growth moderates in Q4; GDP accelerates in full year 2014

March 3, 2015

In Q4 2014, GDP increased 3.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was a tick above previous estimate of 3.0%. The result came in just below the 3.3% expansion recorded in the third quarter and was in line with market expectations. The expansion in Q4 was mainly driven by strong growth in domestic demand. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% in Q4 (Q3: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter).

On the domestic side, growth in private consumption remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Consumer spending rose 3.1% in Q4, which was just below Q3’s 3.2%. Government consumption accelerated slightly, posting a 3.7% increase (Q3: +3.5% year-on-year). Despite having eased somewhat compared to the 9.9% rise tallied ibn Q3, investment posted a strong 9.0% expansion in Q4.

On the external side, exports of goods and services expanded a solid 6.9% in the final quarter of last year, which was significantly up from the 3.8% rise tallied in Q3. Imports also accelerated, increasing 10.7% (Q3: +7.3% yoy). As a result of the strong acceleration in both exports and imports, net exports’ contribution to GDP growth remained negative in the final quarter of the year. Net exports dragged down growth by 1.5 percentage points in Q4, which was slightly up from the minus 1.6 percentage points tallied in Q3.

In the full year 2014, GDP expanded 3.3%, which matched the preliminary estimate and marked a notable improvement compared to the 1.7% growth recorded in 2013.

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 3.0% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresees the economy growing 3.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.2%.


Author:, Economist

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Poland GDP Q4 2014 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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