Poland: Economic activity expands at fastest pace in four years in 2015

According to preliminary estimates released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), GDP grew 3.6% in annual terms in the full year 2015. The result overshot market expectations of a softer 3.5% rise and came in above the 3.3% expansion recorded in 2014. The reading marked the strongest increase in four years.

Private consumption picked up pace last year, expanding 3.1% in 2015 (2014: 2.6%). Fixed investment moderated and grew 6.1%, which was below the 9.8% increase tallied in 2014. Overall, domestic demand rose 3.4%, marking a deceleration compared to the 4.9% increase recorded in 2014.

More detailed data, including external accounts’ contribution to growth, will be published on 29 February.

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand between 2.0% and 3.7% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.1% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists foresee the economy growing 3.2%.