Poland: Economic activity accelerates on stronger exports
August 30, 2013
In the second quarter, GDP increased 0.8% over the same quarter last year. The result came in above the 0.5% expansion recorded in the first quarter, but was in line with the preliminary estimate. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% (Q1 2013: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter).
The acceleration was mainly driven by an improvement in net exports. Exports expanded 5.1% in the second quarter (Q1: +1.3% year-on-year), whereas imports declined 0.6% (Q1: -1.7% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth rose from 1.4 percentage points in the first quarter to 2.5 percentage points in the second.
On the domestic side, private consumption growth rose 0.2% in Q2 (Q1: 0.0% yoy), while government consumption jumped 3.9% (Q1: -0.5% yoy). Fixed investment contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter, decreasing 3.8% (Q1: -2.0% yoy).
The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 1.1% in 2013 and then accelerate to 2.4% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect that the economy will expand 1.4% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month's forecast. For 2014, panellists expect the economy to grow 2.7%.