Poland: Economic activity accelerates on stronger domestic demand
February 28, 2014
In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 2.7% over the same quarter of the previous year, marking the largest expansion since Q1 2012. The result, which came in above the 1.9% expansion recorded in the third quarter, was in line with the preliminary estimate. The acceleration was driven mainly by improvements in total consumption and fixed investment.
On the domestic side, private consumption growth rose to 2.1% in Q4 (Q3: +1.0% year-on-year) and government consumption also expanded 2.1% (Q3: +1.7% yoy). Fixed investment accelerated to a 1.3% increase (Q3: +0.6% yoy).
On the external side, exports expanded 6.3% in the fourth quarter (Q3: +6.4% yoy). Imports growth slowed to a 2.9% expansion (Q4: +3.4% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth inched up from 1.4 percentage points in Q3 to 1.5 percentage points in Q4.
Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% (Q3: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter). In the full year 2013, GDP increased 1.5%, which was down from the 1.9% expansion tallied in 2012.
The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 2.9% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 2.8% in 2014, which is unchanged from the previous month's forecast. For 2015, panelists expect the economy to grow 3.4%.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist