Poland: Economic activity accelerates on stronger consumption and investment
November 29, 2013
In the third quarter, GDP increased 1.9% over the same quarter last year, marking the largest expansion in over a year. The result came in above the 0.8% expansion recorded in the second quarter, but was in line with the preliminary estimate. The acceleration was driven mainly by improvements in consumption and fixed investment. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% (Q2: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter).
On the domestic side, private consumption growth rose 1.0% in Q3 (Q2: +0.2% year-on-year) and government consumption expanded 1.7% (Q2: +4.3% yoy). Fixed investment rebounded to a 0.6% increase (Q2: -3.2% yoy).
On the external side, exports expanded 6.4% in the third quarter (Q2: +3.2% yoy). Imports growth rebounded 3.4% (Q2: -1.9% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 2.5 percentage points in Q2 to 1.4 percentage points in Q3.
The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 1.1% in 2013 and then accelerate to 2.4% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 1.3% in 2013, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month's forecast. For 2014, panelists expect the economy to grow 2.7%,which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist