Poland GDP


Poland: Economic activity accelerates in Q3

November 30, 2015

According to preliminary estimates released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), GDP grew 3.5% in annual terms in Q3. The result was slightly above the preliminary estimate of a softer 3.4% expansion announced on 13 November and overshot the 3.3% rise recorded in the previous quarter. The result came on the back of stronger domestic demand, which more than offset a deterioration in the external sector’s contribution to growth.

Private consumption expanded 3.1%, which mirrored Q2’s increase. Government spending inched up from a 2.5% rise in Q2 to a stronger 2.7% increase in Q3. However, fixed investment decelerated, growing 4.6% in annual terms in Q3 (Q2: +6.1% year-on-year). Overall, domestic demand rose 3.2%, which was above the 3.1% expansion recorded in the previous quarter and marked the strongest reading since Q4 2014.

On the external side, exports of goods and services expanded 3.9% in Q3, which was below the 4.8% rise tallied in Q2. Imports decelerated as well, increasing 3.1% (Q2: +4.5% yoy). Overall, net exports’ contribution to GDP growth deteriorated from 0.4 percentage points in Q2 to 0.2 percentage points in Q3.

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 3.4% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists foresee the economy growing 3.5%.

Author:, Economist

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