Poland GDP

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Poland: Economic activity accelerates in Q1 2015

May 29, 2015

According to preliminary estimates released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), GDP grew 3.6% in annual terms in Q1 2015. The result was slightly above the preliminary estimate of a 3.5% expansion announced on 15 May and was over the 3.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Q1’s result marked the highest growth rate in three quarters.

Private consumption expanded 3.1%, which was slightly above the 3.0% increase tallied in Q4. Conversely, government spending decelerated from a 6.4% rise in Q4 to a weaker 3.3% increase in Q1. Fixed investment grew 11.4% in annual terms in Q1 (Q4: 8.6% year-on-year). Overall, domestic demand rose 2.6%, marking a notable decrease compared to the solid 5.0% expansion recorded in the previous quarter.

On the external side, exports of goods and services expanded a solid 8.0% in Q1, which was up from the 5.6% rise tallied in Q4. Conversely, imports decelerated, increasing 6.0% (Q4: +9.5% yoy). As a result of the acceleration in exports and the deceleration in imports, net exports’ contribution to GDP growth became positive in Q1 for the first time since Q4 2013. Overall, the external sector’s net contribution to growth swung from the minus 1.5 percentage points in Q4 to plus 1.1 percentage points in Q1.

The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 3.4% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists foresee the economy growing 3.2%.


Author:, Economist

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Poland GDP Q1 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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