Poland: 2013 preliminary data shows economic growth slowing in to five-year low
January 30, 2014
According to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), GDP expanded 1.6% in 2013. The figure was down slightly from the 1.9% expansion observed in 2012, although it just barely beat market expectations of a 1.5% rise. In fact, the reading represents the lowest growth rate since 2009. Preliminary data are still subject to revision and more detailed figures for 2013, including fourth quarter results, will be published on 28 February.
The deceleration was led by a slowdown in private consumption, which expanded just 0.8% in 2013 (2012: +1.2% year-on-year). Fixed investment fell 0.4% in 2013, which was less severe than the 1.7% contraction registered in 2012. Overall, domestic demand deteriorated to a 0.2% decrease in 2013, down from the 0.1% fall seen in 2012.
The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 2.9% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will expand 2.8% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month's forecast. For 2015, panelists expect the economy to grow 3.4%.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist