Philippines GDP


Philippines: GDP growth loses steam in Q1

May 30, 2014

GDP expanded 5.7% in Q1 over the same period last year. The reading came in below both the 6.3% rise recorded in Q4 and market expectations of a 6.4% expansion. Furthermore, the reading marked the lowest reading since Q4 2011.

The overall deceleration was driven by a slowdown in domestic demand. Total consumption fell slightly, with private consumption slowing from a 5.9% expansion over the previous year in Q4 to 5.8% growth in Q1. However, government consumption expanded 2.0% over the previous year in Q1, which contrasted the 0.4% contraction seen in Q4. Fixed investment growth tallied an 11.2% increase (Q4: +8.0% year-on-year).

In the external sector, exports of goods and services expanded a strong 12.6% over the previous year in Q1, which was above the 3.2% increase observed in the fourth quarter. Imports picked up to an 8.0% increase (Q4: +6.4% yoy). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth rose from minus 1.0 percentage points in the fourth quarter to plus 2.3 percentage points in the first.

The government expects growth of between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth to reach 6.4% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015 panelists expect growth to hold steady at 6.5%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Philippines GDP Chart

Philippines GDP Q1 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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