Peru Trade May 2016


Peru: Trade surplus hits five-month high in May

July 9, 2016

In May, the trade balance recorded a USD 65.3 million surplus, which was a substantial rebound over the USD 361 million deficit recorded in the same month last year and an improvement over the revised USD 18.5 million surplus registered in April (previously reported: USD 13.1 million surplus).

The Central Bank reported that exports expanded 6.2% annually in May (April: +13.9% year-on-year). Healthy shipments of traditional Peruvian goods were behind May’s expansion. Meanwhile, imports fell 8.6% in May, which came in above April’s 9.9% drop.

In the 12 months up to May, the trade balance posted a deficit of USD 1.6 billion, which was the smallest shortfall in 16 months. After peaking at a record-high surplus of USD 9.9 billion in February 2012, the trade balance narrowed almost uninterruptedly and shifted to deficit in March 2014. This trend has been driven by tumbling global demand and dwindling prices for traditional Peruvian exports such as minerals and fossil fuels. However, there has been a silver lining in the past months as the trade deficit recorded the fourth consecutive moderation in May.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see exports growing 1.9% in 2016. For 2017, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 9.8%.

Author: Marlène Rump, Senior Data Analyst

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Peru Trade Chart

Peru Trade12m May 2016

Note: 12 month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP)

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