Peru Trade

Peru

Peru: Trade balance swings back to deficit in July as exports post another double-digit loss

September 4, 2015

In July, the trade balance registered a USD 373 million deficit, which was larger than the USD 209 million shortfall observed in the same month of last year. July’s deficit contrasted the USD 35 million surplus registered in June, which marked the first positive balance since August of last year.

Exports suffered another massive drop in July, contracting 19.3% over the same month last year (June: -3.9% year-on-year). Considering the large contraction in July, June now marks the only month without a double-digit loss since November of last year. Meanwhile, imports fell 13.5% in July, which was much more pronounced than the 4.6% contraction in June.

In the 12 months up to July, the trade balance posted a deficit of USD 2.4 billion. The trade balance peaked at a record-high surplus of USD 9.9 billion in February 2012. It has narrowed almost uninterruptedly since then and shifted to deficit in April 2014. This trend has been driven by falling global demand and decreasing prices for traditional Peruvian exports, such as copper, silver and natural gas.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports contracting 6.7% this year. For 2016, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 8.0%.


Author:, Economist

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Peru Trade Chart


Peru Trade12m July 2015 0

Note: 12 month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP)


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