Peru Trade

Peru

Peru: Exports suffer another double-digit loss and trade balance registers seventh consecutive deficit in September

November 10, 2014

In September, the trade balance registered a USD 309 million deficit, which contrasted the USD 216 million surplus observed in the same month last year. September’s result was broadly in line with the USD 311 million deficit registered in August, and marked the seventh consecutive negative monthly balance.

Exports suffered another large drop in September, contracting 15.6% over the same month last year (August: -21.1% year-on-year). Meanwhile, imports decreased 1.2% in September, which was up from the 9.4% fall tallied in August.

In the 12 months up to September, the trade balance posted an all-time record deficit of USD 2.5 billion. The trade balance had peaked at a record-high surplus of USD 9.8 billion in February 2012, but has narrowed uninterruptedly since then and shifted to deficit in December 2013. This trend has been driven by falling global demand and prices for traditional Peruvian exports, such as copper, silver and natural gas. Similarly, the increase in import volumes has also affected the trade balance negatively.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports expanding 7.5% this year, which is down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. For 2015, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 6.4%, which is down 1.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast.


Author:, Economist

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Peru Trade Chart


Peru Trade12m September 2014 0

Note: 12 month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP)


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