Peru: Trade balance swings into deficit
June 11, 2013
In April, the trade balance recorded a USD 452 million deficit. The figure exceeded the USD 41.8 million shortfall observed in the same month last year and contrasted the revised USD 318 million surplus tallied in the preceding month (previously reported: USD 200 million surplus). As a result, in the 12 months up to April, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 1.7 billion in April from USD 2.1 billion in March, which represents the lowest level in almost four years.
The monthly figure showed that exports decreased 3.2% annually in April, which, nevertheless, marks an improvement compared to the revised 13.8% plunge observed in March (previously reported: -16.2% year-on-year). In contrast, imports swung from a 3.8% decline in March to a 9.6% expansion in April. The 12-month moving sum of exports up to April fell 7.9% in annual terms (March: -8.3% yoy), whereas the 12-month sum in imports increased 9.6% (March: +9.0% yoy).
The Central Bank expects exports to grow 3.2% in 2013, before accelerating to 10.3% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see exports growing 5.1% this year, before accelerating to 8.9% in 2014.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist