Peru: Exports plummet, trade balance continues to deteriorate
November 22, 2013
In September, the trade balance registered a negligible surplus of USD 3.6 million, which contrasted the USD 569.2 million surplus observed in the same month last year. In the 12 months up to September, the trade balance posted a USD 15.0 million surplus, which represents Peru's smallest trade surplus since May 2002.
Exports plummeted in September, falling 15.8% over the same month last year (August: +4.8% year-on-year) and marking the lowest reading in seven months. Imports contracted a lesser 2.2% in September over the same month last year, after having expanded 4.0% in August.
Due to lower commodity prices and slower global demand, the Central Bank revised its export forecasts and now expects overseas sales to decline 8.2% this year, which is down from the 3.5% contraction previously estimated. For 2014, the Bank sees exports growing 9.2% (initially estimated: +7.8% yoy). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports declining 4.5% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from previous month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees exports expanding 8.4%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from previous month's projection.