Peru: Exports in February post largest contraction since July 2009
April 12, 2013
In February, the trade balance incurred a USD 162 million deficit, which contrasted the USD 952 million surplus observed in the same month last year. As a result, in the 12 months up to February, the trade surplus shrank to USD 2.4 billion surplus, which marks the lowest level since June 2009.
Exports plunged 20.9% over the same month last year, which followed the 15.2% drop observed in January, marking the third consecutive contraction and the sharpest decline since July 2009. As a result, in the 12 months up to February, exports declined 6.7% (January: -3.8% year-on-year).
Meanwhile, imports increased 11.0% in February, which came in below the 13.7% expansion tallied in January. The 12-month moving sum of imports increased 10.8% (January: +10.8% yoy).
The Central Bank expects exports to grow 5.7% in 2013, before accelerating to 12.8% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see exports growing 8.8% this year, before accelerating to 9.6% in 2014.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist