Peru: Exports contract sharply in January
March 11, 2013
In January, the trade balance showed a USD 484 million deficit, which contrasted the USD 684 million surplus observed in the same month last year. As a result, in 12 months up to January, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 3.4 billion from USD 4.5 billion in December, and marked the lowest level since August 2009.
Exports contracted 18.2% over the same month last year (December: -14.3% year-on-year), which represents the sharpest fall since August 2009. As a result, the 12-month moving sum of exports fell 4.1%, which marks the first negative reading since February 2010.
Meanwhile, imports expanded a brisk 13.4% in January, which contrasted the 3.2% contraction observed in December. The result prompted the 12-month sum of imports to January to increase 10.8% (December: +11.5% yoy).
The Central Bank expects exports to grow 5.7% in 2013, before accelerating to 12.8% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see exports growing 8.8% this year, before accelerating to 9.6% in 2014.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist