Peru: Exports contract for eight consecutive month
September 10, 2013
The trade balance incurred a deficit of USD 550 million in July, which was a deterioration compared to the USD 46.2 million shortfall observed in the same month last year. The reading represents the fifth deficit recorded in the last seven months. In the 12 months up to July, the trade balance posted USD 353 million surplus, which is Peru's smallest trade surplus in over a decade.
July's deficit reflects a 13.1% annual contraction in exports (June: -15.5% year-on-year); the eighth consecutive decline in shipments abroad. Meanwhile, imports swung from a 1.0% decline in June to a 0.6% increase in July.
Due to lower commodity prices and slower global demand, the Central Bank revised its export forecasts and now expects overseas sales to decline 3.5% this year, which contrasts the 3.2% expansion previously estimated. For 2014, the Bank sees exports growing 7.8% (initially estimated: +10.3% yoy). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports declining 1.9% this year, before expanding 7.8% in 2014.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist