Peru Trade Balance

Peru

Peru: Exports continue to tumble as trade balance registers record deficit

July 7, 2014

In May, the trade balance registered a record deficit of USD 746 million, which was considerably greater than the USD 272 million deficit observed in the same month last year and exceeded April’s USD 661 million deficit. In the 12 months up to May, the trade balance posted an all-time record deficit of USD 1.5 billion.

Exports contracted 21.9% over the same month last year in May (April: -8.6% year-on-year), which represented the largest decline in almost five years. Meanwhile, imports decreased 7.8% in May, which contrasted April’s 1.7% expansion and marked the steepest drop since October 2009.

A downward trend in the trade balance has been observed over the past two years amid falling international prices for traditional Peruvian exports, such as copper, silver and natural gas. Similarly, the increase in import volumes has also affected the trade balance negatively despite lower international prices.

The Central Bank expects exports to grow 3.8% in 2014. For 2015, the Bank sees overseas sales expanding a healthier 8.2%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports expanding 5.4% this year, which is down 0.4 percentage points from previous month’s estimate. For 2015, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 7.7%.


Author:, Economist

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Peru Trade Balance Chart


Peru Trade12m May 2014

Note: 12 month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP)


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