Peru: Economic activity records slight expansion in July
September 16, 2013
In July, economic activity expanded 4.5% over the same month last year, which marks a slight improvement over the 4.4% increase reported in June. The expansion came in below market expectations of a 5.0% rise. According to the statistical institute, the monthly improvement reflects strong growth in both construction and commerce.
A month-on-month comparison, however, does not corroborate the improvement suggested by the annual data. Economic activity fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.98% in July, which contrasts the 1.37% increase observed in June.
Despite the annual acceleration, the trend continues to point downward, with annual average growth in economic activity falling from 5.7% in June to 5.4% in July.
In its September inflation report, the Central Bank revised its growth forecasts and now projects that the economy will grow 5.5% (previous estimate: 6.1%). For 2014, the Bank slightly cut its projection and now sees the economy expanding 6.2% (previous estimate: 6.3%). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.6% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to increase 5.8%.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist