Peru: Economic activity deteriorates slightly in August
October 18, 2013
In August, economic activity expanded 4.3% over the same month last year, which fell slightly short of the 4.5% expansion tallied in July and came in below market expectations of a 4.6% increase. According to the statistical institute, the print was the result of an across-the-board expansion, with trade and construction registering the strongest improvements. In contrast, the manufacturing sector contracted this month.
A month-on-month comparison corroborates the slight deterioration suggested by the annual data. Economic activity rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.28% in August, which was below the 0.56% expansion registered in July.
As a result of the annual reading, the trend continues to point downward, with annual average growth in economic activity inching down from 5.4% in July to 5.3% in August. Consequently, the annual average now sits at its lowest level in more than three years.
The Central Bank revised its growth forecasts in September and now projects economic growth at 5.5% in 2013. For 2014, the Bank slightly cut its projection and sees the economy expanding 6.2%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.5% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to increase 5.7%, which is also down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate.