Norway: Total GDP slows in Q3 on weaker oil activity
November 19, 2013
In the third quarter, total GDP rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% over the previous period, undershooting the revised 1.4% increase tallied in the second quarter (previously reported: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter). The print exceeded the 0.6% expansion market analysts had expected. According to the statistical institute, total GDP was dragged down by a slower expansion in petroleum activities and ocean transport. On an annual basis, total GDP growth inched up from 2.0% in Q2 to 2.1% in Q3, marking the strongest result since Q2 2012.
Norway mainland's GDP - which consists of all domestic production activity except for extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline and ocean transport - rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% over the previous quarter. The print marks an acceleration over the 0.3% expansion recorded in Q2 (previously reported: +0.2% qoq) and slightly overshot the 0.4% increase the market had expected. Compared to the same period last year, the mainland economy expanded 1.8% in Q3, which was down from the 3.9% increase tallied in Q2.
Private consumption slowed to a 0.1% increase in Q3 (Q2: +0.2% qoq), whereas government spending maintained the previous quarter's pace, expanding 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. Although gross fixed investment contracted 0.5% in Q3 (Q2: +4.8% qoq), total investment expanded 5.1% over the previous quarter due to a higher stockpiling.
Exports of goods and services slowed in Q3, adding just 0.1% in seasonally-adusted terms over the previous quarter (Q2: +1.0% qoq), whereas imports rebounded strongly in Q3, expanding 2.6% (Q2: -0.9% qoq). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth swung from plus 0.7 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.8 percentage points in Q3.
The Central Bank expects total GDP to rise 0.3% in 2013, before accelerating to a 2.0% expansion in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP increasing 1.3% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.4%, which is unchanged from last month's Consensus.
Meanwhile, the Bank sees Mainland GDP expanding 1.8% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect Mainland GDP to increase 2.0% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2014, panelists see GDP growth rising to 2.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate.