Norway: Total GDP declines in Q4 on falling oil activity
February 12, 2014
In Q4, total GDP fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the previous period, which contrasted the revised 0.8% increase tallied in Q3 (previously reported: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter). The print exceeded the 0.1% drop FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists had expected. According to the statistical institute, total GDP was dragged down by a decline in petroleum activities and in ocean transport. On an annual basis, total GDP growth fell from 2.2% in Q3 to 1.1% in Q4. In the full year 2013, total GDP expanded 0.6%, which was well below the 2.9% increase tallied in 2012.
Norway mainland's GDP - consisting of all domestic production activity except for the extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline and ocean transport - rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% over the previous quarter in Q4. The print marked a slight acceleration over the 0.5% expansion recorded in Q3 and overshot the zero growth that the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel had projected. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the mainland economy expanded 1.7% in Q4, which was down from the 1.9% increase tallied in Q3. In the full year 2013, mainland GDP expanded 2.0%, which was below the 3.4% increase recorded in 2012.
Private consumption accelerated to a 0.4% increase in Q4 (Q3: 0.0% qoq), while government spending expanded 0.5% (Q3: +0.3% yoy). Gross fixed investment recorded the largest fall since Q2 2011, declining 1.1% over the previous quarter (Q3: -0.9% qoq).
Exports of goods and services deteriorated markedly in Q4, falling 3.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms over the previous quarter (Q3: -0.8% qoq), while imports contracted a lesser 1.1% (Q3: +0.9% qoq). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth fell from minus 0.6 percentage points in Q3 to minus 0.9 percentage points in Q4.
The Central Bank expects total GDP to rise 2.3% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP increasing 2.1% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2015, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.3%.
Meanwhile, the Bank sees Mainland GDP expanding 2.0% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect Mainland GDP to increase 2.1% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. In 2015, panelists see GDP growth rising to 2.5%.