Norway GDP


Norway: Economy records surprisingly strong expansion in Q3

November 20, 2015

In Q3, total GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 1.8% over the previous quarter, which was a substantial improvement over the flat growth recorded in Q2 and the fastest growth in over three years. The reading drastically overshot market expectations of a 0.2% increase. According to the statistical institute, Q3’s bumper result reflected a significant improvement in the external sector’s contribution to growth, which offset the modest contraction in the domestic sector. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, GDP accelerated from a 2.3% growth in Q2 to a 3.0% expansion in Q3.

Mainland GDP—consisting of all domestic production activity except for the extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline and ocean transport—rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% in Q3. The reading came in below the revised 0.3% increase observed in Q2 (previously reported: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter). The expansion also narrowly beat market expectations by 0.1 percentage points. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the mainland economy grew 1.3% in Q3 (Q2: +1.7% year-on-year).

Total investment contracted in Q3, although at a lesser rate than in Q2 (Q3: -3.3% qoq; Q2: -4.7% qoq). The decrease came despite a modest increase in fixed investment. Growth in private consumption fell to 0.2% in Q3 (Q2: +0.6% qoq) while government spending inched down over the previous quarter, expanding 0.6% (Q2: +0.7% qoq).

The external sector rebounded, as exports of goods and services grew 4.6% over the previous quarter, which was a stark improvement over the 0.3% expansion tallied in Q2. Imports saw a modest contraction, falling 2.3% in Q3, compared to the 2.8% decrease tallied in Q2. Consequently, the contribution from net exports to overall economic growth shot up from plus 0.9 percentage points to plus 2.5 percentage points.

The Central Bank expects total GDP to rise 1.25% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP increasing 1.4% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to expand 1.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.Meanwhile, the Bank sees mainland GDP expanding 1.25% in 2015 and 1.25% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect mainland GDP to increase 1.3% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see mainland GDP growth at 1.5%, which is also unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Author:, Economist

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Norway GDP Chart

Norway GDP Q3 2015

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Norway (SN) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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