Norway GDP Q2 2016

Norway

Norway: Economy decelerates and records flat growth in Q2

August 31, 2016

Following the 1.0% quarter-on-quarter expansion in the first quarter, Norway’s economy slowed down and recorded a flat reading in Q2. The discouraging figure was below the 0.1% expansion expected by market analysts. In year-on-year terms, however, Norway’s economy grew a healthy 2.5% in Q2, which was an acceleration from the 0.6% annual growth seen in Q1.

While total GDP saw no quarterly expansion, Mainland GDP—which comprises all domestic production activity except for the extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services) and pipeline and ocean transport—managed to record a 0.4% expansion over the previous quarter (Q1: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter), which was above analysts’ forecast of a 0.3% increase. The strong annual expansion rate seen for total GDP was reflected in Mainland GDP growth, which rebounded from a contraction in the first quarter. (Q2: +2.0% yoy, Q1: -0.5% yoy)

Total consumption growth in Norway slowed down marginally in Q2 (Q1:+0.6% qoq; Q2: +0.5% qoq) as private and government consumption kept steady expansion rates. In both the first and second quarters, private consumption grew 0.5% while government consumption grew 0.6%. Fixed investment growth rebounded from contractionary to expansionary territory in the second quarter, though it only recorded a meager 0.1% increase (Q1: -1.6%). In particular, investment in petroleum exploration and production drilling contracted, while investment in platforms improved. In contrast, total investment, which includes inventory spending, dropped 2.5% over the previous quarter, contrasting the 5.6% increase in Q1. Statistics Norway’s forward-looking investment intentions survey suggests that total investment will continue to decline in 2016, dragged down by contractions in extraction- and pipeline-related activities.

The external sector returned to providing a positive contribution in Q2, after dragging on growth in Q1. The contraction in exports softened (Q1: -2.7% qoq; Q2: -0.3% qoq) and imports deteriorated from a 0.9% contraction in Q1 to a 1.7% drop in Q2. Exports of traditional goods, such as refined oil products, recorded another decline in Q2, while exports of services rebounded from a drop in Q1. As a result, the external sector’s contribution to growth improved from negative 0.8 percentage points in Q1 to positive 0.4 percentage points in Q2.

The Central Bank expects total GDP to increase 0.1% in 2016 and to expand 1.0% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP increasing 0.9% in 2016, which unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2017, the panel expects the economy to expand 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Bank sees mainland GDP expanding 0.8% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. Our panelists expect mainland GDP to increase 0.9% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2017, panelists see mainland GDP growth at 1.7%.


Author: Marlène Rump, Senior Data Analyst

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Norway? Download a sample report now.

Download

Norway GDP Chart


Norway GDP Q2 2016

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Norway (SN) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


Norway Economic News

  • Norway: Inflation remains steady in January

    February 9, 2018

    Consumer prices decreased 0.1% in January from the previous month—below market expectations of no change and representing the first month-on-month decline since August last year.

    Read more

  • Norway: Economy contracts in the fourth quarter on lower oil and gas output

    February 9, 2018

    In the fourth quarter of 2017, the economy shrank a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% from the previous quarter, below both market analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion and the third quarter’s revised growth of 0.8% (previously reported: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter).

    Read more

  • Norway: Industrial production decreases in December

    February 7, 2018

    According to Statistics Norway, industrial production fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% from the previous month in December, a swing from November’s revised increase of 0.4% (previously reported: +0.6% month-on-month). A contraction in the extraction and related services sector—the largest industrial sector in Norway—spurred the decrease.

    Read more

  • Norway: Inflation accelerates in December

    January 10, 2018

    Consumer prices were unchanged in December last year from the previous month, marking a slowdown compared to the modest increases seen in the prior months.

    Read more

  • Norway: Industrial production expands in November

    January 8, 2018

    According to Statistics Norway, industrial production rose by a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% from the previous month in November, contrasting October’s revised 1.3% decrease (previously reported: -1.4% month-on-month). The expansion in the extraction and related services sector—the largest industrial sector in Norway—drove the increase.

    Read more

More news

Search form