Norway GDP

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Norway: Economy contracts in Q2

August 20, 2015

In Q2, total GDP decreased a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous quarter, which contrasted the 0.1% expansion tallied in Q1. The reading was in line with market expectations. According to the statistical institute, Q1’s contraction reflected a significant deterioration in total investment, which offset the modest gains made in other sectors. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, GDP accelerated from a 1.5% growth in Q1 to a 2.2% expansion in Q2.

Mainland GDP—consisting of all domestic production activity except for the extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline and ocean transport—rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% in Q2. The reading came in below the revised 0.3% increase observed in Q1 (previously reported: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter). The expansion was also in line with market expectations. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the mainland economy grew 1.5% in Q2 (Q1: +1.3% yoy).

Total investment saw a sharp decrease over the previous quarter (Q1: 6.6% qoq; Q2: -2.8% qoq). The decrease reflected a deterioration in fixed investment as well as in the stock of inventories. Growth in private consumption fell to 0.5% (Q1: +1.0% qoq) while government spending increased over the previous quarter, expanding 0.5% (Q1: +0.1% qoq).

The external sector rebounded, as exports of goods and services contracted 0.1% over the previous quarter, which was an improvement over the 3.4% decrease tallied in Q1. Imports saw a steeper contraction, falling 1.3% in Q2 contrasting the 2.7% increase tallied in Q1. Consequently, the contribution from net exports to overall economic growth swung from minus 2.1 percentage points in Q1 to plus 0.4 percentage points in Q2.

The Central Bank expects total GDP to rise 1.25% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP increasing 1.3% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel expects the economy to expand 1.6%. Meanwhile, the Bank sees mainland GDP expanding 1.5% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect mainland GDP to increase 1.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2016, panelists see mainland GDP growth at 1.8%.


Author:, Economist

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Norway GDP Q2 2015

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Norway (SN) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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