Norway GDP

Norway

Norway: Economic growth slows in Q3

November 20, 2014

In Q3, total GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% over the previous quarter, which is less than half the revised 1.1% expansion tallied in Q2 (previously reported: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter). The reading matched market expectations. According to the statistical office, Q3’s deceleration reflected a deterioration in the production and distribution of electricity which was compensated by a notable improvement in the extraction of crude oil and natural gas. Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP accelerated from a revised flat growth in Q2 (previously reported: -0.3% year-on-year) to a 2.1% expansion in Q3.

Mainland GDP—consisting of all domestic production activity except for the extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline and ocean transport—rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in Q3. The reading came in well below the 1.2% increase observed in Q2. The expansion, nonetheless, exceeded the 0.2% rise the market had expected. Compared to the same period last year, the mainland economy accelerated from a revised 1.0% increase in Q2 (previously reported: +0.8% yoy) to a 2.7% rise in Q3.

Domestic demand slowed notably over the previous quarter, reflecting a deceleration in government consumption (Q3: +0.6% qoq; Q2: +1.0% qoq) and a deterioration in private spending (Q3: -0.1% qoq; Q2: +0.7% qoq). In addition, fixed investment swung from a 0.3% increase in Q2 to a 0.2% contraction in Q3.

Conversely, the external sector improved, as exports of goods and services expanded a solid 2.1% over the previous quarter, which contrasted the 1.4% contraction tallied in Q2. Imports grew 2.2% in Q3, which contrasted the 0.3% decrease tallied in Q2. Consequently, the contribution from net exports to overall economic growth swung from minus 0.4 percentage points in Q2 to plus 0.2 percentage points in Q3.

The Central Bank expects total GDP to rise 1.5% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP increasing 1.8% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2015, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.1%. Meanwhile, the Bank sees Mainland GDP expanding 1.8% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect Mainland GDP to increase 2.1% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2015, panelists see Mainland GDP growth rising to 2.3%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Norway GDP Q3 2014

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Norway (SN) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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