Romania: Economic growth slows in Q3
According to a preliminary estimate, growth slowed in the third quarter, coming in at 0.2% on an annual basis (Q2: +1.0% yoy). A full breakdown will not be available until 7 December.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded 0.4% in Q3 (Q2: +1.3% qoq s.a.).
Going ahead, the should will grow at a faster pace next year owing to stronger momentum in household spending, fixed investment and exports, as well as a rebound in industrial production. Key factors to monitor are fiscal metrics and the renegotiation of the National Recovery Plan with the EU, while slower-than-expected progress on key reforms is a downside risk
Commenting on the outlook, Stefan Posea and Valentin Tataru from ING stated:
“This visible growth slowdown is in line with our long-held view that the economy will slow more than most expect this year. While the unfortunate combination of low growth and sticky inflation could carry on into the next year as well, we still hold on to our below-consensus 2024 GDP growth forecast of 2.8%.”