Nigeria: Business confidence declines in November from October's one-year high

In November, the Business Sentiment Indicator (BSI) developed by MNI Indicators and Standard Chartered fell from October’s 65.3 to 62.6. October’s print had marked the highest reading so far this year. Despite the decline, the indicator continues to rest comfortably above the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in business conditions.

November’s drop mainly reflects declines in production and new orders. On the other hand, the order backlogs, employment and supplier delivery times categories recorded an improvement. Regarding FX developments, the survey reported that, “given the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) monetary policy easing at its meeting on 24 November 2015, which suggests no imminent change to the current FX regime, the ‘effect of the NGN exchange rate reading’ will likely continue to be a concern for Nigerian businesses in the coming months.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect gross fixed investment growth to reach 6.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists forecast an expansion of 5.0%, which is also unchanged from last month’s estimate.