New Zealand Business Confidence

New Zealand

New Zealand: Business confidence falls to over-six-year low in July

July 31, 2015

Confidence among businesses fell in July, according to the ANZ Bank Business Outlook, which reported that a net 15.3% of businesses surveyed expected worse economic conditions in the coming 12 months. The figure, which came in below June’s 2.3% of respondents expecting poorer economic conditions, represented the worst result since March 2009. As a result, business confidence fell deeper below the 0% threshold that separates optimism from pessimism.

According to ANZ, downturns were recorded in 9 of the 14 categories that comprise the index. Firms’ expectations for their own activity, which is an even better predictor of economic activity, decreased from 23.6 points in June to 19.0 points in July. In addition, the construction sector recorded a significant downturn in July over the previous month, with commercial construction falling from plus 31.9 points to minus 6.6 points. According to ANZ, “survey results point to an economy needing a tailwind in the form of a lower OCR.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect fixed investment to grow 7.6% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees fixed investment slowing to 4.6%.

Author:, Economist

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New Zealand Business Confidence Chart

New Zealand Business Confidence July 2015

Note: Percentage of respondents expecting improvement in general business conditions minus percentage expecting deterioration. An index number above 0 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The survey is not conducted in January.
Source: ANZ Bank Business Outlook.

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