Netherlands GDP Q4 2016


Netherlands: Revised GDP data confirms moderate slowdown in Q4

March 24, 2017

The Netherlands’ economy slowed in the final quarter of 2016, on the back of weaker private consumption and falling fixed investment. Conversely, both government consumption and the external sector’s contribution to growth improved compared to Q3. GDP grew a revised 0.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms over the previous quarter (previously reported: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter), according to revised data released by Statistics Netherlands on 24 March, decelerating from Q3’s 0.8% expansion, but nonetheless marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth. The economy grew a revised 2.5% in Q3 over the same quarter last year (previously reported: +2.3% year-on-year), which matched Q3’s reading, bringing the growth rate for 2016 as a whole to a revised 2.2% (previously reported: +2.1%).

In Q4, private consumption growth decelerated from the 1.0% recorded in Q3 to a 0.7% increase. Moreover, fixed investment deteriorated from the 0.2% drop recorded in the third quarter to a 2.5% fall, an almost four-year low. On the upside, government consumption gained steam, swinging from the 0.1% contraction in Q3 to a 0.6% expansion in Q4.

On the external front, growth in exports of goods and services accelerated, recording a 0.9% expansion, slightly down from the 1.0% growth observed in Q3. Growth in imports of goods and services decelerated from Q3’s 0.9% to 0.4% in Q4. Consequently, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth in Q4 was 0.5 percentage points, up from Q3’s 0.2 percentage points and marking the largest net contribution in two and a half years.

For 2017, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 1.8%, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2018, the panel expects the economy to expand 1.7%.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Netherlands GDP Chart

Netherlands GDP Q4 2016

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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