Netherlands: Economy emerges from recession in Q3
November 15, 2013
In the third quarter, GDP grew 0.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms over the previous quarter according to the first estimate released by Statistics Netherlands on 15 November. The reading matched market expectations and marks an improvement over the flat growth recorded in Q2. This is the first quarterly growth recorded since Q2 2012 and, as a result, the economy is now out of a technical recession.
On the domestic side, gross fixed investment rose 1.9% over the previous quarter (Q2: +1.7% quarter-on-quarter). Private consumption dropped 0.5% in the third quarter (Q2: -0.7% qoq) and government consumption remained at the 0.2% decreased tallied in the previous quarter.
On the external front, exports of goods and services decreased from a 0.7% expansion in Q2 to a flat reading in Q3. Imports of goods and services fell from 1.6% growth in Q2 to a 0.3% increase in Q3. Consequently, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth improved from minus 0.5 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.2 percentage points.
The government expects the economy to contract 1.3% in 2013 and to grow 0.5% in 2014. The Dutch Central Bank expects a 0.8% contraction in 2013 and a 0.5% expansion in 2014. For 2013, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP contracting 1.1%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to expand 0.5%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist