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Mexico: Trade deficit continues to deteriorate amid lower oil exports

October 27, 2015

Mexico’s trade deficit totaled USD 1.4 billion in September, which contrasted the USD 480 million surplus registered in the same month last year. September’s result was also slightly worse than the USD 1.2 billion shortfall the markets had expected. The trade deficit in September drove the 12-month rolling shortfall to USD 11.4 billion (August: USD 9.4 billion), which represented the widest deficit since September 2009. The widening of the accumulated trade deficit has been mainly driven by a deterioration in the oil trade balance, which showed a USD 8.5 billion deficit in the past 12 months—the worst reading on record.

The trade balance deteriorated in September as a result of another significant contraction in exports. Merchandise exports totaled USD 32.2 billion in September, which was 5.6% down from the level observed in the same month last year. The contraction—the third in a row—followed the 6.7% decrease observed in August and mainly reflected a 49.6% year-on-year decrease in oil exports. Meanwhile, imports registered USD 33.7 billion in September, which remained unchanged compared to the level observed in the same month last year.

Panelists surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus report expect exports to increase a timid 1.3% in 2015 and reach USD 402 billion, while imports are expected to expand 2.7% and reach USD 411 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports and imports to increase 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Trade12m September 2015

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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