Mexico Trade May 2017

Mexico

Mexico: Trade balance surprises to the downside in May, details paint a rosy picture

June 27, 2017

The external sector seemingly kicked into higher gear in May. The trade report showed exports growth regaining most of its recently lost momentum, accelerating from a lackluster 4.5% year-on-year expansion in April to a hefty 12.9% increase in May and pushing the value of Mexico’s overseas sales to USD 35.5 billion. The headline figure was supported by a robust performance in the key manufacturing sector—manufacturing exports were up 12.9% in annual terms in May—which accounts for about 90% of total exports.

Imports swung from April’s 5.0% decrease to a 14.7% rise in May, the result of a broad-based increase across import categories. A steep increase in non-oil intermediate imports drove the result, which is likely to provide additional support to manufacturing exports in upcoming months. Mexican households also pulled their weight in May, with consumer imports also recording a strong expansion in May. All in all, imports totaled USD 36.5 billion, resulting in a USD 1.1 billion trade deficit. This contrasted last month’s USD 0.9 billion trade surplus and confounded market analysts, who had expected a USD 1.0 billion surplus.

In line with May’s result, the 12-month trailing trade deficit widened to USD 9.6 billion, slightly above April’s USD 8.9 billion shortfall. Notwithstanding this month’s headline figure, the strong performance in both exports and imports highlights the strong dynamism for overall trade in Mexico. The external sector is however facing an unexpected challenge: the Mexican peso rose to its strongest level in more than a year against the U.S. dollar on 26 June, which is likely to dent exporters’ margins and render Mexican goods less competitive in overseas markets.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect exports to reach USD 393 billion in 2017, which will represent a 5.2% expansion compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, imports are expected to grow 4.4% and reach USD 404 billion. For 2018, the panel expects both exports and imports to expand 4.8%.


Author:, Economist

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Mexico Trade Chart


Mexico Trade12m May 2017

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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