Mexico Trade

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Mexico: External sector continues showing signs of weakness

June 26, 2015

Mexico’s trade balance incurred a USD 1.0 billion deficit in May. The print contrasted the USD 123 million surplus registered in the same month last year and marked a second consecutive month of shortfall. May’s trade deficit was also larger than the USD 158 million shortfall the markets had expected. The accumulated trade deficit in the 12 months up to May was USD 5.5 billion, which represented the largest deficit seen since July 2013.

The larger-than-expected trade deficit in May reflected an 8.8% year-on-year contraction in Mexico’s overseas sales—the sharpest annual decrease since late 2009. Exports recorded USD 31.3 billion in May, which was below the USD 34.4 billion observed in the same month last year. The contraction reflected another plunge in oil exports (May: -37.2% year-on-year; April: -50.5% yoy) and a decrease in non-oil exports (May: -5.3% yoy; April: +2.7% yoy).

Moreover, imports totaled USD 32.4 billion in May, which was 5.5% lower (April: -1.6% yoy) than the USD 34.3 billion tallied in the same month last year.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 3.7% in 2015, reaching USD 412 billion, while imports are expected to expand 4.6% and reach USD 418 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports and imports to increase 7.4% and 7.7%, respectively.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Trade Chart


Mexico Trade12m May 2015

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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