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Mexico: Exports contract for four consecutive months, 12-month trade deficit at record high

November 27, 2015

Mexico’s trade balance incurred a deficit of USD 1.4 billion in October. The reading came in below the miniscule USD 64 million shortfall registered in the same month last year yet it mirrored the USD 1.4 billion deficit tallied in September. October’s deficit was, nevertheless, smaller than the USD 1.8 billion deficit that the market had expected.

The trade deficit in October drove the 12-month rolling shortfall to USD 12.7 billion (September: USD 11.4 billion deficit), which represented the highest deficit since September 2009. The widening of the accumulated trade deficit has been mainly driven by a deterioration in the oil trade balance, which has already surpassed the USD 8.0 billion deficit in the past 12 months—the worst reading on record.

Exports suffered another significant contraction in October. Mexico’s overseas sales totaled USD 34.2 billion in October, which marked a 7.4% contraction in year-on-year terms. The drop was faster than September’s 5.6% decrease and marked a fourth consecutive month of decline. November’s drop stemmed mainly from a 41.5% year-on-year contraction in oil exports, while non-oil exports fell only 4.1%. Meanwhile, imports registered USD 35.6 billion in October, which represented a 3.6% decrease over the same month last year.

Panelists surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus report expect exports to reach USD 394 billion in 2015, which will represent a 0.7% contraction compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, imports are expected to expand 1.2% and reach USD 405 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports and imports to increase 4.9% and 4.9%, respectively.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Trade12m October 2015

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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