Mexico: After dismal performance in May, exports and imports increase in June

In June, Mexico’s trade deficit totaled USD 749 million, which contrasted the USD 386 million surplus registered in the same month last year. June’s deficit was smaller than the trade shortfall observed in May (USD -1.0 billion). The accumulated trade deficit in the 12 months up to June was USD 6.6 billion. The reading represented the largest accumulated trade deficit since October 2009.

Looking at the headline numbers, exports increased 1.2% year-on-year in June, which pushed overseas sales to USD 33.8 billion. The monthly expansion contrasted the dismal 8.8% contraction registered in May. June’s expansion stemmed mainly from a solid increase in non-oil exports (+6.8% yoy). Conversely, oil exports registered another bleak plunge (-41.0% yoy).

On the other side of the balance, imports totaled USD 34.6 billion in June, which were above the USD 33.1 billion observed in the same month last year and represented a 4.7% annual expansion. June’s increase contrasted the 5.5% contraction observed in May.

Should the U.S. economy continue to recover and the Mexican peso weaken, growth in Mexico’s overseas sales is likely to continue improving in the coming months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 3.7% in 2015, reaching USD 412 billion, while imports are expected to expand 4.6% and reach USD 418 billion. For 2016, the panel expects exports and imports to increase 7.4% and 7.7%, respectively.