Mexico Inflation


Mexico: Inflation rises to three-month high in June

July 9, 2014

In June, consumer prices rose 0.17% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.32% decrease observed in May. The result, which fell short of the 0.20% increase the market had expected, mainly reflected higher prices for processed food, beverages and tobacco as well as for services, which could be due to the World Cup event.

Owing to the monthly increase, annual headline inflation rose from 3.5% in May to 3.8% in June, which marked a three-month high. Despite the increase, inflation remains within the Central Bank’s plus/minus 1.0 percentage point tolerance margin around its 3.0% target.

Core consumer prices, which strip out volatile categories such as fresh food and energy prices, rose 0.21% over the previous month, which came in above the 0.09% rise observed in May. Annual core inflation ticked up to 3.1% in June (May: 3.0% year-on-year).

The Central Bank (Banxico) expects that, by the end of 2014, inflation will be below the 4.0% target ceiling. For 2015, Banxico expects inflation to end the year slightly above its target of 3.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2014 at 3.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s forecast. For 2015, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.5%.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico Inflation Chart

Mexico Inflation June 2014

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).

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